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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.